Nasjonal transportplan

Predicting future behaviour in the transport sector

Planning of new roads and other transportation infrastructure has never been more difficult. New disruptive technologies create uncertainty about modes of transportation, adoption by the population and need for capacity in the infrastructure.

Future trends

How will trends like an increased level of education, and increased average lifespan affect attitude and behaviour related to transportation? Will increased connectivity dampen the current trend towards urbanization and moving to larger cities?

The National Transport Plan (NTP) describes the overall objectives for the transport sector in a12‑year time frame and the prioritized national infrastructure projects for the first six years. Assumptions about future trends, public behaviour and technology adoption are important parts of the knowledge base for the plan.

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In collaboration with THEMA Consulting, Mindshift predicted how new technologies will influence public behaviour in the transport sector of the future. We focused on the technologies’ connectivity, carbon emissions and autonomy, creating forecasts and scenarios on how they would play out in a medium long (2030) and long term (2050) for the different modes of transportation. In addition, we deep‑dived into adoption of zero emission cars in the private market towards 2025.
 
Mindshift and THEMAs contribution can be found in the National Transportation Plan 2022‑2033.